That incident drew an embarrassingly disproportionate response from the umpires’ union, and while it may have earned Machado a bit of sympathy in some quarters, it didn’t lessen the scrutiny on him. He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011.

We hoped you liked reading Manny Machado Has Been Fine by Jay Jaffe!

He spent five weeks manning shortstop in the absence of the injured Fernando Tatis Jr., where the small-sample metrics say he was slightly below average, but now back at the hot corner, he’s been above average. All minor league baseball data provided by Major League Baseball Advanced Media Moreover, his GB/FB rate increased, as did his strikeout rate, while his slash line stayed mostly flat. Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. I am fully aware of how many games have been played.

Comparing his season numbers as a whole to last season, the biggest change for Machado — besides his uniform and home ballpark — has been his rising strikeout rate (20.6%, nearly six full points higher than last year) and swinging strike rate (11.3%, up 1.7 points from last year and his highest mark since his 2012 rookie season). Whether it’s because of his recent controversies or his tepid early-season performance, Machado didn’t come close to making the cut for the final All-Star voting; as of June 17, he was sixth among NL third basemen, with less than half the vote total of the top four (eventual finalists Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, and Josh Donaldson plus Justin Turner) and just over half that of fifth-place Anthony Rendon. Off the bat, it’s worth remembering that this hasn’t been a typical season for Machado.

All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,

His 2.3 WAR is tied for 20th. We hoped you liked reading 2014 Pod Projections: Manny Machado by Mike Podhorzer!

It’s a smidgen worse than the 15.9% mark he posted last season, but a sustaining of the improvement he made from his 2012 debut.
It’s worth digging into his pitch splits (via Pitch Info): Machado is seeing far more four-seam fastballs than last year, and he’s flat-out destroying them, but while not only rarely chasing but also laying off an even greater share of those in the strike zone; his swinging strike rate against the heater has remained constant. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,

That gives ammunition to his critics, but as a perpetually polarizing player, he’ll never satisfy all of them.

If it doesn’t seem all that long ago that Manny Machado was the darling of prospect hounds and fantasy dreamers, well, that’s because it hasn’t been; the 2010 first round draft pick made his debut just two seasons ago, broke out as an all-star last year and was barely drinking age on opening day back in April. by Handedness, an embarrassingly disproportionate response. Machado is still amid controversy, awaiting word on his one-game suspension stemming from a June 15 ejection in Colorado after which he threw his helmet and other equipment, and may or may not have made contact with home plate umpire Bill Welke. He’s prone to chasing them, and his swinging strike rate against them has risen significantly. Those positive indicators are especially pertinent when discussing a player like Machado, who, after all, is still just a pup who won’t turn 23 until next July; as Dave Cameron pointed out, he’s six months younger than Kris Bryant and 10 months younger than Gregory Polanco.

Today’s Pod Projection is the Orioles young third sacker, Manny Machado. Of more concern is that he’s making hard contact less frequently (43.2% versus last year’s 48.0%, which has dropped him from the 94th percentile to the 73rd) and his .348 xwOBA is about 25 points below his 2016-18 numbers (he’s dropped from last year’s 90th percentile to the 64th this year). His average fly ball distance of 335 feet is 17 feet further than in 2018, and represents an improvement of 13 feet relative to the league averages (319 feet last year, 323 feet this year).

His 88 wRC+ for the period was the first time he left the gate with a below-average month; last year, he sizzled at a 157 wRC+ clip (.361/.448/.676) in March and April. Admins may or may not choose to remove the comment or block the author. At full price, Machado, a former top prospect who a) had a strong finish in 2014, b) plays a position that’s felt awfully shallow lately and c) has the capability of finishing among the top five third basemen would still deserve to be considered a draft day bargain. As for when he makes contact, Machado’s ground-ball and fly-ball rates haven’t changed appreciably (39.0% and 43.2% this year), though he’s popping up a fair bit more often (16.2% IFFB compared to last year’s 11.6%). It amazes me how underutilized splits are. His work has appeared in numerous publications, and he has contributed to the 2014 and 2015 editions of The Hardball Times Annual.

Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. I agree with all these points.

Game-logs are useful too. The line drive rate is a bit higher due to the fluky low 13.9% mark he posted in 2012 that is dragging down his average. Not much for park adjustments? He has 3 hits in 17 PA’s all home runs with no walks. He’s hardly the sole reason the Padres, who lost 96 games last year, are 42-42, but he’s already nearly doubled the 1.3 WAR of the 2018 squad’s third basemen (primarily Christian Villanueva, with Wil Myers and Cory Spangenberg seeing significant time there as well), which is to say that he’s been a significant part of the team’s improvement, if not its sole driver.
He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. He posted a somewhat disappointing 7.9% mark last year and generally didn’t show a whole lot of home run power in the minors either. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman.

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So much of Machado’s real life value is his defense which isn’t captured in fantasy. Furthermore, he posted sub-.300 BABIP marks at every minor league stop (excluding his small sample stint at Low-A in 2010).

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